Optimal Targeted Lockdowns in a Multigroup SIR Model
| Autor: | Daron Acemoglu, Victor Chernozhukov, Iván Werning, Michael D. Whinston |
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| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: | |
| Zdroj: | American Economic Review: Insights. 3:487-502 |
| ISSN: | 2640-2068 2640-205X |
| DOI: | 10.1257/aeri.20200590 |
| Popis: | We study targeted lockdowns in a multigroup SIR model where infection, hospitalization, and fatality rates vary between groups—in particular between the “young,” the “middle-aged,” and the “old.” Our model enables a tractable quantitative analysis of optimal policy. For baseline parameter values for the COVID-19 pandemic applied to the US, we find that optimal policies differentially targeting risk/age groups significantly outperform optimal uniform policies and most of the gains can be realized by having stricter protective measures such as lockdowns on the more vulnerable, old group. Intuitively, a strict and long lockdown for the old both reduces infections and enables less strict lockdowns for the lower-risk groups. (JEL H51, I12, I18, J13, J14) |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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