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O objetivo desse trabalho e identificar as causas climaticas dos eventos extremos ocorridos nas macrorregioes de Alagoas, e ao mesmo tempo, comparar os efeitos dos ENOS Canonico e Modoki e suas classes sobre as macrorregioes alagoanas. Os dados de precipitacao diaria de 21 municipios do Estado de Alagoas foram obtidos atraves da Agencia Nacional de Aguas com periodo de 1963 a 2014. EN Modoki e Fracos promoveram aumento de chuvas na regiao Leste. Ja EN Fortes causaram diminuicao de precipitacao no Sertao. Eventos de LN Canonica causaram aumento significativo nas chuvas das 3 macrorregioes, mas o efeito foi melhor em LN Forte. Durante as fases do Dipolo do Atlântico, a fase negativa gerou SPI positivo em todo estado, e na fase positiva, houve diminuicao do SPI na regiao Leste, e registro de SPI negativo no Sertao e Agreste. As causas climaticas dos eventos extremos foi a juncao das escalas semestral, interanual, escala entre 1-2 anos de ENOS, escala de ENOS estendido e escala de 11 anos (Dipolo e Manchas solares) potencializando os totais pluviometricos locais, e para casos de seca, sua ausencia. Verificou-se, atraves de analises de agrupamentos, semelhanca entre os SPIs da La Nina Fraca e La Nina Canonica, e entre o El Nino Canonico esta ligado ao El Nino Forte. Ja matematicamente, as categorias de El Nino e La Nina forte e fraca apresentaram melhores correlacoes com ENOS Modoki e Canonico, sugerindo padrao para Alagoas. Identification of climatic causes of extreme events and impacts of Canonical and Modoki ENSO on Alagoas macroregions. A B S T R A C T Anomalies of sea surface temperature that occur in some regions of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean are being studied because their cause different impacts and originate in different ways, are the ENOS, Modoki and Canonical. The objective of this work is to identify the climatic causes of the extreme events that occurred in the macro-regions of Alagoas, and at the same time, to compare the effects of ENOS Canonical and Modoki and their classes on the macro-regions of Alagoas. The daily precipitation data for 21 municipalities in the State of Alagoas were obtained through the National Water Agency from 1963 to 2014. EN Modoki and low promoted an increase in rainfall in the Eastern region. EN Fortes, on the other hand, caused a decrease in rainfall in the Sertao. Canonical LN events caused a significant increase in rainfall in the three macro-regions, but the effect was better in LN Forte. During the phases of the Atlantic Dipole, the negative phase generated positive SPI across the state, and in the positive phase, there was a decrease in SPI in the East, and a negative SPI record in Sertao and Agreste. The climatic causes of the extreme events were the combination of semiannual, interannual scales, scale between 1-2 years of ENOS, scale of ENOS extended and scale of 11 years (Dipole and sunspots), potentiating the local total rainfall, and for cases of drought , your absence. It was found, through cluster analysis, similarity between the SPIs of La Nina low and La Nina Canonical, and between El Nino Canonical is linked to El Nino Forte. Mathematically, the categories of El Nino and La Nina strong and weak showed better correlations with ENOS Modoki and Canonical, suggesting a pattern for Alagoas. Keywords . Wavelet analysis; SPI; Cluster analysis. |
