ESTIMATING THE NATURAL RATE OF HOURS
| Autor: | Tino Berger, Hauke Vierke |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2017 |
| Předmět: |
Inflation
Economics and Econometrics Multivariate statistics media_common.quotation_subject 05 social sciences Monetary policy 1. No poverty NAIRU Taylor rule Microeconomics Margin (finance) 0502 economics and business 8. Economic growth Unemployment Business cycle Economics Econometrics 050207 economics 050205 econometrics media_common |
| Zdroj: | Macroeconomic Dynamics. 21:1426-1453 |
| ISSN: | 1469-8056 1365-1005 |
| DOI: | 10.1017/s1365100515000917 |
| Popis: | This paper proposes an alternative measure for the slack of the aggregate labor market. The natural rate of hours holds valuable information about the state of the labor market that is not reflected by conventional measures, such as the equilibrium rate of unemployment, because it takes the intensive margin into account and is robust to variations in labor force participation. We set up and estimate a multivariate unobserved-components model using information on GDP, inflation, and hours worked, and apply it to the United States and Germany. The estimated hours gap outperforms conventional unemployment gap measures in a Taylor rule by formal model comparison. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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