HIV / AIDS as a Threat to the Demographic Securiy of the Region
| Autor: | Andrey Tsvetkov, Aleksandr Kuklin, Dar’ya Ypaneshnikova, I . Korobkov |
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| Rok vydání: | 2019 |
| Předmět: | |
| Zdroj: | Living Standards of the Population in the Regions of Russia. 15:106-116 |
| ISSN: | 2713-3397 1999-9836 |
| Popis: | The Object of the Study. The territory of the Ural Federal Okrug with HIV infection spread.The Subject of the Study. The socioeconomic relations between the executive and the health system at all levels that arises about the fixation, diagnosis, prevention of HIV infection The Purpose of the Study is critical diagnosing the state of the territory to predict the number of able-bodied population of the region, taking into account socially significant medical factors (incidence of HIV infection).The Main Provisions of the Article. Fertility decline, population aging, mortality have a directly impact on the demographic situation in the Urals Federal Okrug. Population projections are taking into account different socio-economic trends should precede the development of demographic policies. Currently, in most subjects of the Ural Federal Okrug, the number of elderly people is increasing, the number of people of working age is decreasing and, accordingly, the demographic load on the working population is increasing. In the framework of this study, the calculation of demographic security of the Ural Federal Okrug and a model of the influence of various socio-economic factors on it is proposed. It is shown that the level of demographic security for a number of regions included in the Ural Federal Okrug began to decline in 2015 and strive to get out of the normal state. On the basis of the offered model one of the factors influencing demographic safety – HIV infection and AIDS is chosen. The calculation of the medical and demographic forecast of the able-bodied population, are taking into account the impact of HIV infection. Sverdlovsk and Chelyabinsk Regions are among the leaders in the number of HIV-infected people, in some regions we are talking about an epidemic. This disease is characterized by a long latent period, the defeat, mainly young people of working age, the high cost of treatment, the lack of reliable methods of treatment and vaccination. The mathematical model allowing to consider influence of HIV infection on change of population of working age is constructed, calculations for Sverdlovsk, Chelyabinsk and Kurgan Regions have been carried out. Comparison of forecast values with and without adjustment for HIV/AIDS factors shows a significant impact of the disease on the demographic picture of the Sverdlovsk and Chelyabinsk Regions. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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