Can semi-parametric additive models outperform linear models, when forecasting indoor temperatures in free-running buildings?
| Autor: | Matej Gustin, Robert S. McLeod, Kevin J. Lomas |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2019 |
| Předmět: |
020209 energy
Mechanical Engineering Generalized additive model 0211 other engineering and technologies Linear model 02 engineering and technology Building and Construction Semiparametric model Autoregressive model 021105 building & construction Statistics 0202 electrical engineering electronic engineering information engineering Electrical and Electronic Engineering Akaike information criterion Time series Additive model Window opening Civil and Structural Engineering Mathematics |
| Zdroj: | Energy and Buildings. 193:250-266 |
| ISSN: | 0378-7788 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.enbuild.2019.03.048 |
| Popis: | A novel application combining semi-parametric Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) with logistic GAMs was developed to forecast indoor temperatures and window opening states during prolonged heatwaves. GAM models were compared to AutoRegressive models with eXogenous inputs (ARX) and validated against monitored data from two case study dwellings, located near to Loughborough in the UK, during the 2013 heatwave. Input variables were selected using backward stepwise regressions based on minimisation of the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE), for the ARX and GAM models respectively. Comparison of the models showed that whilst GAMs are capable of improving the forecasting accuracy, the improvements are significant only up to 3–6 h ahead. During heatwaves and over longer forecasting horizons, GAMs were found to be less reliable and accurate than ARX models. The marginal improvement in forecasting accuracy at shorter horizons did not justify the additional computational time and risk of instability associated with more complex GAMs, at longer forecasting horizons. Whilst, logistic GAMs were shown to adequately predict the window opening state, incorporating knowledge of the window state did not significantly improve the accuracy of the indoor temperature predictions. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
|
Full Text from ScienceDirect