Home Foreclosures as Early Warning Indicator of Neighborhood Decline

Autor: Sonya Williams, Nandita Verma, George Galster
Rok vydání: 2013
Předmět:
Zdroj: Journal of the American Planning Association. 79:201-210
ISSN: 1939-0130
0194-4363
DOI: 10.1080/01944363.2013.888306
Popis: Problem, research strategy, and findings: Ideally, planners would intervene in neighborhood processes before substantial forces of decline have gained momentum. Unfortunately, currently there is no guidance about which neighborhood indicators forecast future neighborhood changes. This study seeks a neighborhood early warning indicator that is readily available, frequently updated, and that predicts with substantial foresight and accuracy future changes in key aspects of neighborhood market processes and quality of life. We search over a range of neighborhood indicators for one or more that clearly lead others in a temporal sense, instead of lagging behind them. We employ Granger causality tests with indicators related to public safety, housing market, and economic activity that are based on data from Chicago neighborhoods between 1998 and 2009. Our key finding is that only one indicator analyzed, completed home foreclosures, systematically precedes other neighborhood indicators but does not systematically...
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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