| Autor: |
Paulo Picchetti |
| Rok vydání: |
2018 |
| Předmět: |
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| Zdroj: |
Societies and Political Orders in Transition ISBN: 9783319900162 |
| DOI: |
10.1007/978-3-319-90017-9_20 |
| Popis: |
This paper proposes a methodology for estimating the probabilities of recession starts and endings in the Brazilian economy. The model providing these estimations is a logistic regression using as covariates some transformations of composite leading and coincident indicators for Brazilian economic cycles. A very attractive feature of this approach is the avoidance of the need for extrapolating the information beyond the available sample, allowing for more reliable real-time assessments. It is shown that a Bayesian approach to the estimation of the model produces more robust and interpretable results. |
| Databáze: |
OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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