Assessment of the Expected Runoff Change in Spain Using Climate Simulations
| Autor: | Luis Miguel Barranco, Ángela Potenciano, Javier Álvarez-Rodríguez, Luis Quintas, Francisco Olivera, Federico Estrada |
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| Rok vydání: | 2014 |
| Předmět: | |
| Zdroj: | Journal of Hydrologic Engineering. 19:1481-1490 |
| ISSN: | 1943-5584 1084-0699 |
| DOI: | 10.1061/(asce)he.1943-5584.0000920 |
| Popis: | An assessment has been conducted of the potential effect of climate change on runoff in Spain in the 21st century. Runoff depths were calculated with a precipitation runoff model that used as input downscaled global climate model (GCM) outputs. The spatial and temporal resolution of the calculations was 1 km 2 and 1 month, respectively. The assessment consisted of comparing runoff values of the baseline period, 1961-1990, with those of three 21st century periods, 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100, all estimated with simulated temperature and precipitation time series. Twelve climate simulations (i.e., combinations of a GCM, a greenhouse gas emissions scenario, and a downscaling algorithm), and whose variability reflects the uncertainty over the future climate, were considered. Based on the results, a decline in runoff is to be expected throughout the country. With respect to the baseline period, and depending on the climate simulation considered, runoff depths are expected to change in the range of þ1 to �22% in 2011-2040, �5 to �34% in 2041-2070, and 0 to �40% in 2071-2100. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000920. © 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers. Author keywords: Climate change; Hydrologic models; Runoff; Water resources; Spain. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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