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The concept of risk related to the potential breaching of a dam is a current problem in engineering. Dams have an important role in society and the collapse of such structures may bring about large disasters. This research aims to summarize a numerical technique of risk analysis, namely a Monte Carlo Simulation, to evaluate the probability of a dam overtopping, caused by events of hydraulic and hydrological nature and apply then in a case study. The simulation was used with the objective of evaluating the probability of overtopping of Cajuru dam, located in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais, due to a flood of a certain return period, considering the uncertainties from the local frequency analysis of annual maximumdis charges. The Monte Carlo method, which account for the uncertainties of quantile estimates of a given return period, showed that it can be useful in providing a full evaluation of the probability of overtopping. For the case reported herein, the simulation showed that Cajuru dam has a non-negligible degree of vulnerability to rare and extreme events. In addition to floods, the impact of the wind on the upstream face of the dam was also analyzed. Wind waves and consequent reductions in existing freeboard, in between the full-pool elevation and the dam crest elevation, were also taken into account in computing the probability of dam failure |
