Determination of design accidental fire load for offshore installations based on quantitative risk assessment with treatment of parametric uncertainty
| Autor: | Bongsik Chu, Daejun Chang, Sangick Lee |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2017 |
| Předmět: |
021110 strategic
defence & security studies Engineering Operations research business.industry General Chemical Engineering 0211 other engineering and technologies Energy Engineering and Power Technology 02 engineering and technology Management Science and Operations Research Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering Confidence interval Reliability engineering 020401 chemical engineering Latin hypercube sampling Control and Systems Engineering Accidental Submarine pipeline 0204 chemical engineering Consequence analysis Safety Risk Reliability and Quality Risk assessment business Food Science Parametric statistics |
| Zdroj: | Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries. 45:160-172 |
| ISSN: | 0950-4230 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.jlp.2016.11.015 |
| Popis: | This study investigated the critical issues for determining the design accidental load (DAL) fire procedure based on quantitative risk assessment (QRA) for offshore installations. Considerable attention was paid to parametric uncertainty in choosing the numerical values used for the frequency and consequence analysis. In particular, selecting the initial leak size was one of the most critical aspects, and inconsistent approaches for selecting this value resulted in different risks for identical systems. Frequency analysis of past investigations also overlooked the inaccuracy and unsuitability of statistical data. Accordingly, the estimated risks were significantly uncertain, and the lack of information about the results increased the risk of making the wrong decision. In this study, the Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) technique was used to treat parametric uncertainty in QRA. Different fire exceedance curves and DAL fires were demonstrated by selecting different sets of representative values. The distribution and confidence interval of the DAL fires showed a wide distribution with varying uncertain and critical parameters. Therefore, this procedure provided quantitative information on inherent uncertainty, and such additional information regarding DAL fires can lead to better decision making. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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