Проблемы уникального выбора: архетипы управленческих решений
| Jazyk: | ruština |
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| Rok vydání: | 2019 |
| Předmět: | |
| DOI: | 10.25686/2306-2800.2019.1.5 |
| Popis: | В статье рассматриваются проблемы уникального выбора, системный анализ как методология принятия слабоструктурированных решений, формирование «эмпирических правил» в виде архетипов на основе метода системной динамики. Introduction. Management decisions are a central element for complex tasks in social, economic, environmental, and political systems. The main feature of such systems is the weak structuring of knowledge about a system, strong mutual influence between the parameters of the system is the central feature of such systems. That is, there are practically no independent control parameters in the system, which significantly complicates its study. In decision-making theory, such problems are called “weakly structured” or “non-structured”. Furthermore, the main characteristics are qualitative. For this reason, sufficiently reliable quantitative models for their description and solution are missing. The goal of the research is to give a rational reasoning for application of the methods for solving complex management problems. Methods. An attempt to apply the methods of the classical theory of decision-making under the conditions of complex problems led to the development of a new direction in the theory of decision-making - “unique choice”. Methods and technologies of unique choice are developed as a result of adaptation of classical decision-making methods to the conditions of lack of information at the time of decision-making and as a result of uncertainty in the estimates of alternatives, as well as the lack of objective quantitative scales for evaluating alternatives. This inevitably leads to the growing importance and value of expert assessments in the tasks of the unique choice. At the same time, low efficiency of applying the unique selection methods for solving complex problems, even with high expert competence, is primarily due to the weak structuring of these tasks. Use of simulation modeling (system dynamics) as a tool of the system approach can significantly improve the efficiency of managerial decision-making in the conditions of weakly structured tasks. Conclusion. Simulated models built on the basis of expert knowledge are of high operational value. They enable the investigation of the dynamics of mutual influence of the parameters of a complex system, which makes it possible to identify the cause and effect relationship both “inside” the complex system and with the “host” system (archetype). Understanding of the processes of the system under study as a subsystem of the containing system significantly increases the efficiency of the decisions made to manage this system №1(41) (2019) |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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