Real time modelling as an emergency decision support system for accidental release of air pollutants

Autor: Werner K. Graber, Fritz Gassmann
Rok vydání: 2000
Předmět:
Zdroj: Mathematics and Computers in Simulation. 52:413-426
ISSN: 0378-4754
DOI: 10.1016/s0378-4754(00)00164-6
Popis: In the framework of the project ‘Windbank’, wind field patterns in an area of 30 km×30 km in the Swiss Plateau between the Alps and the Jura were measured with 22 temporary meteorological stations and two SODARs during 4 months in 1997. Hourly averages from this high resolution network were combined with meteorological information from routine stations and from a weather prediction model. This data-set comprises all available parameters influencing the complex wind flow in the investigated area between the Alps and the Jura. A cluster analysis for this data-set lead to 12 classes with a high separation quality. It is demonstrated, that an on-line acquisition of meteorological data from routine stations and from a weather prediction model can be used to diagnose the recent wind field class with a probability of 96% to hit the correct wind field class. This diagnosis reveals wind fields with a very high spatial resolution in a very short time. Consequently, it is useful as a contribution to a decision support system for safety management after accidental releases of nuclear or chemical air pollutants. Further, a method is outlined to use the weather prediction model to forecast the wind field class. An average probability of 79% to hit the correct wind field classes for a forecast time of up to 24 h is evaluated.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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