| Autor: |
Keywan Riahi, Bastiaan van Ruijven, Tomoko Hasegawa, Ken Oshiro, Francesco Dalla Longa, Jacques Després, Behnam Zakeri, Kimon Keramidas, Massimo Tavoni, Larissa P. Nogueira, Volker Krey, Matthias Weitzel, Anique-Marie Cabardos, Florian Humpenöder, Alexander Popp, Joeri Rogelj, Christoph Bertram, Bob van der Zwaan, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Mathijs Harmsen, Shinichiro Fujimori, Jun’ya Takakura, Stefan Frank, Gunnar Luderer, Florian Fosse, Zoi Vrontisi, Andre Deppermann, Gamze Unlu, Daniel Huppmann, Malte Meinshausen, Leonidas Paroussos, Valentina Bosetti, Elmar Kriegler, Mykola Gusti, Roberto Schaeffer, Laurent Drouet, Paul Kishimoto, Kostas Fragkiadakis, Pedro Rochedo, Oliver Fricko |
| Rok vydání: |
2021 |
| Předmět: |
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| DOI: |
10.21203/rs.3.rs-127847/v1 |
| Popis: |
Global emissions scenarios play a critical role in the assessment of strategies to mitigate climate change and their related societal transformations. The current generation of scenarios, however, are criticized because they rely heavily on net negative CO2 emissions (NNCE) that result from allowing temperature limits to be temporarily exceeded. In this study we present a new set of emissions scenarios that exclude NNCE. We show that such scenarios require a more rapid near-term transformation with significant long-term gains for the economy (even without considering the benefits of avoided climate impacts). Scenarios that avoid temperature overshoot and NNCE are thus not only economically more attractive over the long term, they also involve lower climate risks. Our study further identifies possible alternative configurations of net-zero CO2 emissions systems and the distinct roles of different sectors and regions in order to balance emissions sources and sinks. |
| Databáze: |
OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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