Early flood warning in the Itajaí-Açu River basin using numerical weather forecasting and hydrological modeling
Autor: | Regina Célia dos Santos Alvalá, Rochane de Oliveira Caram, Javier Tomasella, Leandro Casagrande, Marcus Jorge Bottino |
---|---|
Rok vydání: | 2017 |
Předmět: |
Atmospheric Science
Flood warning 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Meteorology Warning system Flood myth 0208 environmental biotechnology Flood forecasting Weather forecasting 02 engineering and technology computer.software_genre 01 natural sciences 020801 environmental engineering Natural hazard 100-year flood Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) Environmental science HEC-HMS Water resource management computer 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Water Science and Technology |
Zdroj: | Natural Hazards. 88:741-757 |
ISSN: | 1573-0840 0921-030X |
Popis: | In recent decades, population growth associated with unplanned urban occupation has increased the vulnerability of the Brazilian population to natural disasters. In susceptible regions, early flood forecasting is essential for risk management. Still, in Brazil, most flood forecast and warning systems are based either on simplified models of flood wave propagation through the drainage network or on stochastic models. This paper presents a methodology for flood forecasting aiming to an operational warning system that proposes to increase the lead time of a warning through the use of an ensemble of meteorological forecasts. The chosen configuration was chosen so it would be feasible for an operational flood forecast and risk management. The methodology was applied to the flood forecast for the Itajai-Acu River basin, a region which comprises a drainage area of approximately 15,500 km2 in the state of Santa Catarina, Brazil, historically affected by floods. Ensemble weather forecasts were used as input to the MHD-INPE hydrological model, and the performance of the methodology was assessed through statistical indicators. Results suggest that flood warnings can be issued up to 48 h in advance, with a low rate of false warnings. Streamflow forecasting through the use of hydrological ensemble prediction systems is still scarce in Brazil. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time this methodology aiming to an operational flood risk management system has been tested in Brazil. |
Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
Externí odkaz: |