Determining Rockfall Risk in Christchurch Using Rockfalls Triggered by the 2010–2011 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence

Autor: William Ries, Laurie Richards, Graeme McVerry, Chris Massey, Biljana Lukovic, Nicola Litchfield, Mauri McSaveney, David Heron, Tony Taig, Russ Van Dissen, David A. Rhoades
Rok vydání: 2014
Předmět:
Zdroj: Earthquake Spectra. 30:155-181
ISSN: 1944-8201
8755-2930
DOI: 10.1193/021413eqs026m
Popis: The Canterbury earthquake sequence triggered thousands of rockfalls in the Port Hills of Christchurch, New Zealand, with over 6,000 falling on 22 February 2011. Several hundred families were evacuated after about 200 homes were hit. We characterized the rockfalls by boulder-size distribution, runout distance, source-area dimensions, and boulder-production rates over a range of triggering peak ground accelerations. Using these characteristics, a time-varying seismic hazard model for Canterbury, and estimates of residential occupancy rates and resident vulnerability, we estimated annual individual fatality risk from rockfall in the Port Hills. The results demonstrate the Port Hills rockfall risk is time-variable, decreasing as the seismic hazard decreases following the main earthquakes in February and June 2011. This presents a real challenge for formulating robust land-use and reconstruction policy in the Port Hills.
Databáze: OpenAIRE