Isolating the anthropogenic component of Arctic warming

Autor:	Glen Lesins, Ole Humlum, M. G. Wyatt, Manvendra K. Dubey, Nicholas Hengartner, Petr Chylek, James D. Klett
Rok vydání:	2014
Předmět:	Variables media_common.quotation_subject Climate change Forcing (mathematics) Radiative forcing Arctic geoengineering Geophysics Arctic Climatology Greenhouse gas Atlantic multidecadal oscillation General Earth and Planetary Sciences Environmental science media_common
Zdroj:	Geophysical Research Letters. 41:3569-3576
ISSN:	1944-8007 0094-8276
Popis:	Structural equation modeling is used in statistical applications as both confirmatory and exploratory modeling to test models and to suggest the most plausible explanation for a relationship between the independent and the dependent variables. Although structural analysis cannot prove causation, it can suggest the most plausible set of factors that influence the observed variable. We apply structural model analysis to the annual mean Arctic surface air temperature from 1900 to 2012 to find the most effective set of predictors and to isolate the anthropogenic component of the recent Arctic warming by subtracting the effects of natural forcing and variability from the observed temperature. We find that anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols radiative forcing and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation internal mode dominate Arctic temperature variability. Our structural model analysis of observational data suggests that about half of the recent Arctic warming of 0.64 K/decade may have anthropogenic causes.
Databáze:	OpenAIRE
Externí odkaz:	https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::160c0d95d4f1bd7457f6b3eb58587b06 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014gl060184 Zobrazit plný text záznamu Plný text