Scenarios for land use and ecosystem services under global change
| Autor: | Maria Jose Martinez-Harms, Brett A. Bryan, Kerrie A. Wilson, Patricio Pliscoff, Rebecca K. Runting, Eugenio Figueroa |
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| Rok vydání: | 2017 |
| Předmět: |
Global and Planetary Change
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Ecology Fire regime Land use business.industry Geography Planning and Development Environmental resource management Climate change Global change 010501 environmental sciences Management Monitoring Policy and Law 01 natural sciences Agricultural and Biological Sciences (miscellaneous) Ecosystem services Environmental studies Urbanization business Baseline (configuration management) 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Nature and Landscape Conservation |
| Zdroj: | Ecosystem Services. 25:56-68 |
| ISSN: | 2212-0416 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.ecoser.2017.03.021 |
| Popis: | Scenarios provide a platform to explore the provision of ecosystem services under global change. Despite their relevance to land-use policy, there is a paucity of such assessments, particularly in developing countries. Central Chile provides a good example from the Latin American realm as the region has experienced rapid transformation from natural landscapes to urbanization and agricultural development. Local experts from Central Chile identified climate change, urbanization, and fire regimes as key drivers of change. Scenarios depicting plausible future trajectories of change were developed to assess the combined effects on carbon storage, wine production, and scenic beauty for the year 2050. Across the region, the action of the drivers reduced the total amount of carbon storage (by 85) and wine production (by 52) compared with a baseline scenario, with minor changes incurred for scenic beauty. The carbon storage and wine production had declined by 90 and scenic beauty by 28 when the reaction to changed fire regimes was also taken into account. The cumulative outcomes of climate change and urbanization are likely to place substantial pressures on ecosystem services in Central Chile by mid-century, revealing the need for stronger planning regulations to manage land-use change. © 2017 Elsevier B.V. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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