Hydrologic Parameter Effects on Small‐Dam Risk Analysis in Missouri
| Autor: | R. Lee Peyton, Arthur R. Kalmes |
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| Rok vydání: | 1990 |
| Předmět: |
Return period
Risk analysis Hydrology business.industry Probabilistic logic Antecedent moisture Agricultural and Biological Sciences (miscellaneous) Hydrology (agriculture) Risk analysis (engineering) Maximum precipitation Environmental science Sensitivity (control systems) business Risk management Water Science and Technology Civil and Structural Engineering |
| Zdroj: | Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering. 116:465-478 |
| ISSN: | 1943-4774 0733-9437 |
| DOI: | 10.1061/(asce)0733-9437(1990)116:4(465) |
| Popis: | The sensitivity of risk cost to hydrologic parameters is evaluated to determine the feasibility of risk analysis as an alternative to existing requirements for rehabilitation at small dams in Missouri. The sensitivity to probable maximum precipitation (PMP) exceedence probability is greatly reduced by interpolating rainfall exceedence probabilities between the PMP and the rainfall depth that initiates failure, instead of the PMP and the 100‐year return period depth. This approach also reduces by a small amount the sensitivity of risk cost to the assumed probability‐distribution function. Variations in the time distribution of rainfall and the antecedent moisture condition (AMC) have a large influence on risk cost. Probabilistic combinations of the three AMC classes result in risk costs within 13% of the risk cost using AMC II, the “average” condition. Of the three dam‐breach parameters evaluated, risk cost is most sensitive to breach‐development time and least sensitive to breach side slopes. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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