Time horizon: The moving boundary

Autor: Edgar Taschdjian
Rok vydání: 1977
Předmět:
Zdroj: Behavioral Science. 22:41-48
ISSN: 1099-1743
0005-7940
DOI: 10.1002/bs.3830220107
Popis: This paper surveys the problem of moving boundaries in physicochemical, biological, managerial, socioeconomic and cybernetic systems and in its spatial as well as temporal aspects. It is shown that a time horizon is a moving boundary which separates the foreseeable from the unforeseeable future. Its specification is required for unambiguous forecasts of short-range and long-range behavior of the system under study. In general, the entropy or uncertainty of transition across the time horizon has a paraboloid distribution. In socioeconomic systems it is especially important to distinguish between ex ante and ex post forecasts and to specify not only the errors in the variables, but also in their relations. Various computational methods used in the analysis of moving boundary problems are indicated in the literature.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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