Predicting Nitrate Concentrations in Northern Ireland Rivers Using Time Series Analysis
| Autor: | R. V. Smith, K. M. Stronge, S. D. Lennox |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 1997 |
| Předmět: |
Environmental Engineering
media_common.quotation_subject Drainage basin Management Monitoring Policy and Law engineering.material Grassland chemistry.chemical_compound Nitrate Grazing Waste Management and Disposal Water Science and Technology media_common Hydrology geography geography.geographical_feature_category Variables business.industry Environmental engineering Pollution chemistry engineering Environmental science Livestock Fertilizer Catchment area business |
| Zdroj: | Journal of Environmental Quality. 26:1599-1604 |
| ISSN: | 1537-2537 0047-2425 |
| Popis: | Lough Neagh is an important natural resource, being the largest single source of potable water for Belfast. Its catchment area covers about one-third of the land area of Northern Ireland. Six inflow rivers drain 88% of the total catchment, which has a land usage of grassland and rough grazing that is similar to Northern Ireland as a whole. This report examines the causes of the year-to-year variation in river NO 3 concentrations that have been the focus of European Community (EC) legislation. A multiple regression model has been developed which explains 74% of the variation in NO 3 , concentrations for the time period 1974 to 1994. Based on a knowledge of the Northern Ireland annual utilized metabolizable energy (UME) for grazing livestock and N fertilizer sales, the model employs the efficiency of fertilizer usage as an independent variable. Additional independent variables are climatic: previous summer rainfall, sun hours in the winter and rainfall for the period January to June. Based on a worst case scenario, employing the extreme values for these climatic variables and the least fertilizer efficiency ratio, the predicted NO 3 , concentration is only 4.4 mg N L -1 , which is well below the EC maximum admissible level of 11.3 mg N L -1 for drinking water. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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