Bayesian Estimation of the Size of a Closed Population Using Photo-ID Data with Part of the Population Uncatchable

Autor:	José Galvão Leite, Cibele Q. da-Silva, Luis Aparecido Milan, Josemar Rodrigues
Rok vydání:	2003
Předmět:	Statistics and Probability Bayes estimator education.field_of_study Rejection sampling Bayesian probability Population Statistical model Bayesian inference Binomial distribution Modeling and Simulation Prior probability Statistics education Mathematics
Zdroj:	Communications in Statistics - Simulation and Computation. 32:677-696
ISSN:	1532-4141 0361-0918
DOI:	10.1081/sac-120017856
Popis:	We develop a Bayesian statistical model for estimating bowhead whale population size from photo-identification data when most of the population is uncatchable. The proposed conditional likelihood function is a product of Darroch's model, formulated as a function of the number of good photos, and a binomial distribution of captured whales given the total number of good photos at each occasion. The full Bayesian model is implemented via adaptive rejection sampling for log concave densities. We apply the model to data from 1985 and 1986 bowhead whale photographic studies and the results compare favorably with the ones obtained in the literature. Also, a comparison with the maximum likelihood procedure with bootstrap simulation is considered using different vague priors for the capture probabilities.
Databáze:	OpenAIRE
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