Annual Extreme Lake Elevations by Total Probability Theorem

Autor: Harold E. Kubik
Rok vydání: 1992
Předmět:
Zdroj: Journal of Great Lakes Research. 18:202-206
ISSN: 0380-1330
DOI: 10.1016/s0380-1330(92)71287-8
Popis: Annual extreme water levels on the Great Lakes, whether maximums or minimums, have a high serial dependence. Therefore, traditional frequency analysis techniques are not applicable and more sophisticated statistical techniques are required to account for the dependence in the annual extremes. Decomposition of the annual extremes into two parts, one containing the highly dependent part and the other containing the random part, is one method of dealing with the dependence in the lake elevations. These parts are then combined by application of the total probability theorem. Seasonality of the occurrence of both parts was found to be very important. Therefore, the complete analysis was done for the 6-month fall-winter period and the 6-month spring-summer period. The two curves were then combined by the union of probabilities. Application of this method to the Buffalo Harbor and Cleveland gages resulted in computed “1 % of Years Exceeded” elevations of 176.76 meters (579.91 feet) and 175.17 meters (574.71 feet) (IGLD 1955), respectively.
Databáze: OpenAIRE