Irreversible loss in marine ecosystem habitability after a temperature overshoot

Autor: Yeray Santana-Falcón, Akitomo Yamamoto, Andrew Lenton, Chris Jones, Friedrich A. Burger, Jasmin John, Jerry Tjiputra, Jörg Schwinger, Michio Kawamiya, Thomas Frölicher, Tilo Ziehn, Roland Seferian
Rok vydání: 2023
DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-2230847/v1
Popis: Anthropogenic warming of the oceans and associated deoxygenation are altering marine ecosystems. Current knowledge suggests that these changes might be reversible in the centennial timescale in the ocean surface and irreversible at deeper depth if global warming were to decline. However, knowledge on the persistence of their combined effects on marine ecosystems remains limited. Here we explore to what extent global warming will drive alterations on marine habitats by following the evolution of a metabolic index that captures the ecophysiological response of marine organisms to both changes in temperature and oxygen, through an idealised ramp-up ramp-down atmospheric CO2 concentration experiment. Using a multi-model approach, we find that changes in ocean temperature and oxygen drives a centuries-long irreversible loss of ~4% in the habitable volume of the upper 1000 m of the world ocean. These results suggest the combined effect of warming and deoxygenation will diminish the capability of the ocean to hold life far after recovering from a temperature overshoot.
Databáze: OpenAIRE