Modeling the Impact of Behavior Change on the Spread of Ebola
| Autor: | Ling Xue, James M. Hyman, Jeremy Dewar, Jessica R. Conrad |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2016 |
| Předmět: |
0301 basic medicine
education.field_of_study Ebola virus Medical treatment business.industry 030231 tropical medicine Population Behavior change Psychological intervention Disease medicine.disease_cause 03 medical and health sciences 030104 developmental biology 0302 clinical medicine Environmental health medicine Epidemic model business education Basic reproduction number |
| Zdroj: | Mathematical and Statistical Modeling for Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases ISBN: 9783319404110 |
| DOI: | 10.1007/978-3-319-40413-4_2 |
| Popis: | We create a compartmental mathematical model to analyze the role of behavior change in slowing the spread of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) in the 2014–2015 Western Africa epidemic. Our model incorporates behavior change, modeled as decreased contact rates between susceptible and infectious individuals, the prevention of traditional funerals, and/or increased access to medical facilities. We derived the basic reproductive number for the model, and approximated the parameter values for the spread of the EVD in Monrovia. We used sensitivity analysis to quantify the relative importance of the timing, and magnitude, of the population reducing their contact rates, avoiding the traditional burial practices, and having access to medical treatment facilities. We found that reducing the number of contacts made by infectious individuals in the general population is the most effective intervention method for mitigating an EVD epidemic. While healthcare interventions delayed the onset of the epidemic, healthcare alone is insufficient to stop the epidemic in the model. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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