| Popis: |
In this study, a forecasting model has been created with macroeconomic variables which are considered to have been seriously injured after occupational accidents and which are thought to affect the number of survivors who have been unable to work for 5 days or more. With this model, it is aimed to estimate the number of occupational accidents that may arise from the changes observed in macroeconomic variables. Due to the changing macroeconomic situation, it is considered that knowing the number of increasing or decreasing occupational accidents will be beneficial in taking proactive measures to prevent possible accidents. Monthly data for 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016 were used in the study. Multiple Linear Regression model was used in the model. In addition to the regression analysis assumptions, the negative effects of the trend in the time series were also taken into consideration in the formation of the model in order to avoid the false regression situation that may occur in the data sets consisting of periodical data. For this purpose, the variables used in the model were analyzed by providing co-integration. In the study, it was concluded that the number of survivors, who were unemployed for 5 days or more, was dependent on the number of employment and producer price (PPI) index. The obtained model was evaluated in terms of occupational health and safety. Model outputs were interpreted and recommendations were made to decision-makers, planners and practitioners who are effective in employee health and safety issues. |
