Stratospheric variability contributed to and sustained the recent hiatus in Eurasian winter warming
| Autor: | Luke D. Oman, Valentina Aquila, Kanghyun Song, Seok-Woo Son, Chaim I. Garfinkel |
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| Rok vydání: | 2017 |
| Předmět: |
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Hiatus 010502 geochemistry & geophysics Atmospheric sciences 01 natural sciences Vortex Geophysics Surface air temperature 13. Climate action Polar vortex Greenhouse gas Climatology General Earth and Planetary Sciences Environmental science Physics::Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics 0105 earth and related environmental sciences |
| Zdroj: | Geophysical Research Letters. 44:374-382 |
| ISSN: | 0094-8276 |
| Popis: | The recent hiatus in global-mean surface temperature warming was characterized by a Eurasian winter cooling trend, and the cause(s) for this cooling is unclear. Here we show that the observed hiatus in Eurasian warming was associated with a recent trend toward weakened stratospheric polar vortices. Specifically, by calculating the change in Eurasian surface air temperature associated with a given vortex weakening, we demonstrate that the recent trend toward weakened polar vortices reduced the anticipated Eurasian warming due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Those model integrations whose stratospheric vortex evolution most closely matches that in reanalysis data also simulate a hiatus. While it is unclear whether the recent weakening of the midwinter stratospheric polar vortex was forced, a properly configured model can simulate substantial deviations of the polar vortex on decadal timescales and hence such hiatus events, implying that similar hiatus events may recur even as greenhouse gas concentrations rise. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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