Spatial Modeling to Project Southern Appalachian Trout Distribution in a Warmer Climate

Autor: Laura D. Roghair, Jennifer L. Bruggink, Patricia A. Flebbe
Rok vydání: 2006
Předmět:
Zdroj: Transactions of the American Fisheries Society. 135:1371-1382
ISSN: 1548-8659
0002-8487
DOI: 10.1577/t05-217.1
Popis: In the southern Appalachian Mountains, the distributions of native brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis and introduced rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss and brown trout Salmo trutta are presently limited by temperature and are expected to be limited further by a warmer climate. To estimate trout habitat in a future, warmer climate, we produced a regional map of wild trout habitat based on information from stream samples, expert knowledge, and suitable land cover. We then developed a quantile regression model of the elevation–latitude boundary for the present distribution of trout; this constitutes a more direct, spatially explicit approach to modeling trout distribution than the use of thermal limits. In combination with a lapse rate model, the boundary model was used to project future wild trout distributions over a range of higher temperatures. If the predictions of the Hadley Centre global circulation model (GCM) are assumed, about 53% of trout habitat would be lost; if the more extreme Canadian ...
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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