Estimating Safety by the Empirical Bayes Method: A Tutorial

Autor:	Ezra Hauer, Douglas W. Harwood, Forrest M. Council, Michael S. Griffith
Rok vydání:	2002
Předmět:	Estimation Engineering Operations research business.industry Intersection (set theory) Mechanical Engineering Poison control Occupational safety and health Bayes' theorem Accident (fallacy) Empirical research business Simulation Civil and Structural Engineering Empirical Bayes method
Zdroj:	Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board. 1784:126-131
ISSN:	2169-4052 0361-1981
DOI:	10.3141/1784-16
Popis:	The empirical Bayes (EB) method addresses two problems of safety estimation: it increases the precision of estimates beyond what is possible when one is limited to the use of a 2- to 3-year accident history, and it corrects for the regression-to-mean bias. The increase in precision is important when the usual estimate is too imprecise to be useful. The elimination of the regression-to-mean bias is important whenever the accident history of the entity is in some way connected with the reason why its safety is estimated. The theory of the EB method is well developed. It is now used in the Interactive Highway Safety Design Model and will be used in the Comprehensive Highway Safety Improvement Model. The time has come for the EB method to be the standard and staple of professional practice. The study’s goal is to facilitate the transition from theory into practice.
Databáze:	OpenAIRE
Externí odkaz:	https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::02e9b486b8efb7aefa30ab3ac16b5d36 https://doi.org/10.3141/1784-16 Zobrazit plný text záznamu