| Autor: |
Mir-Akbar Hessami, Naomi Rachel Brammer |
| Rok vydání: |
2009 |
| Předmět: |
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| Zdroj: |
Transactions of the Canadian Society for Mechanical Engineering. 33:11-24 |
| ISSN: |
0315-8977 |
| DOI: |
10.1139/tcsme-2009-0003 |
| Popis: |
Distributed or decentralised generation (DG) using advanced fossil fuel and renewable energy technologies is an attractive alternative to traditional electricity generation. Over 75% of new generating capacity installed in the Australian state of Victoria between 2000 and 2010 will be DG from gas turbines and wind farms. However, it is uncertain if this new capacity will be sufficient to maintain historic levels of electricity supply reliability. The contribution of DG to Victoria’s electricity supply in 2010 has been assessed, through analysis of modelled supply and demand data and comparisons with data from 2000. While it was assumed that new gas turbines will provide peak load and emergency generation, the role of wind farms was evaluated by considering their equivalent firm capacity estimated using statistical and probabilistic methods. Results show that all DG from gas turbines will contribute to Victoria's electricity supply in 2010, but only 4-30% of installed wind farm capacity can be considered firm or reliable. Technical performance indicators suggest that the new generating capacity will be unable to satisfy increased demand with adequate reliability. Additional base load capacity and demand reduction measures are required to ensure Victoria’s electricity supply reliability is maintained in the future. |
| Databáze: |
OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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