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This study, it is aimed to investigate the relationship in Turkey's financial development and economic growth. The validity analysis of financial development to economic growth is the supply-led hypothesis, has been made. The ratio of loans to the private sector to gross domestic product, which is an indicator of financial development, between 1980-2017, to the gross domestic product, and the indicator of economic growth, was analyzed with real gross domestic product data. In the econometric analysis of the data of the variables, a correlation test was made and it was seen that there was a strong relationship in the same direction. The series became stationary after the ADF unit root test was used to measure the stationarity of the series. With the ARDL model boundary test, cointegration takes place at a 10% significance level. The optimal delay length was determined as ARDL (1.0) according to the Akaike information criterion. Short term forecasting analysis was performed between the variables. %1 increase in financial development increases economic growth in the short term by 0.781. It is seen that variables by using CUSUM test as structural break test have no structural break problem. In order to determine the coefficients of the variables in the long term, the coefficients in the long term were estimated by Ordinary Least-Squares method OLS, Full-Modified Least- Squares method FMOLS, Dynamical Least-Squares method DOLS and Canonical Cointegration Regression CCR method. According to the coefficient estimation results, it is seen that the 1% increase in financial development has created a large multiplier since it has increased more than 1% in economic growth. The increase occurred in financial developments effect between the years 1980-2017 economic growth positively for Turkey. |
