Disagreement à la Taylor: Evidence from Survey Microdata
| Autor: | Lena Draeger, Michael J. Lamla |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2015 |
| Předmět: |
Disagreement
inflation expectations microdata Economics survey microdata unemployment expectations jel:D84 taylor rule Inflation expectations jel:E31 jel:C33 Disagreement Taylor rule Interest rate expectations Inflation expectations Unemployment expectations Microdata jel:E58 interest-rate expectations |
| Zdroj: | Dräger, L & Lamla, M J 2017, ' Disagreement à la Taylor: Evidence from Survey Microdata ' The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, vol 119, no. 4, pp. 987-1009 . DOI: 10.1111/sjoe.12217 |
| DOI: | 10.1111/sjoe.12217 |
| Popis: | There is a growing interest in studying the disagreement of economic agents. Most studies, however, focus on the disagreement regarding one specific variable, hereby neglecting that disagreement may be comoving with disagreement on other variables. In this paper we explore to which extent disagreement regarding the interest rate is driven by disagreement on inflation and on unemployment. This relationship can be motivated by the existence of the Taylor rule. Using micro survey data for both professional forecasters and consumers, we provide evidence that disagreement on the future interest rate is mainly driven by disagreement on inflation. Exploring further determinants, we confirm that central bank transparency as well as news on money and credit conditions significantly influence disagreement. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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