Weighing costs and losses: A decision making game using probabilistic forecasts
| Autor: | Werner, M., Ramos, M.H., Wetterhall, F., Cranston, M., Van Andel, S.-J., Pappenberger, F., Verkade, J. |
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| Přispěvatelé: | UNESCO IHE DELFT NLD, Partenaires IRSTEA, Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA), DELTARES NLD, Hydrosystèmes et Bioprocédés (UR HBAN), Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA), ECMWF EUROPEAN CENTRE OF MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS GBR, RAB CONSULTANTS LTD STIRLING GBR, UNESCO-IHE DELFT NLD, IRSTEA ANTONY UR HBAN FRA |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2017 |
| Předmět: | |
| Zdroj: | EGU General Assembly 2017 EGU General Assembly 2017, Apr 2017, Vienna, Austria. Geophysical Research Abstracts, 19, pp.1, 2017 |
| Popis: | International audience; In this paper, we present the results of a simple game that aims to explore how decision makers are influenced by the costs required for taking a response and the potential losses they face in case the forecast flood event occurs. Participants play the role of one of three possible different shop owners. Each type of shop has losses of quite different magnitude, should a flood event occur. The shop owners are presented with several forecasts, each with a probability of a flood event occurring, which would inundate their shop and lead to those losses. In response, they have to decide if they want to do nothing, raise temporary defences, or relocate their inventory. Each action comes at a cost; and the different shop owners therefore have quite different cost/loss ratios. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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