Interactions of mean climate change and climate variability on food security extremes
| Autor: | Ruane, Alex C., Mcdermid, Sonali P, Mavromatis, Theodoros, Hudson, Nicholas, Morales, Monica, Simmons, John, Agalawatte, Prabodha, Ahmad, Ashfaq, Ahmad, Shakeel, Ahuja, Laj R., Anapalli, Saseendran S., Anothai, Jakarat, Asseng, Senthold, Bellocchi, Gianni, Benjamin, Dumont, Bert, Federico, Bertuzzi, Patrick, Bhatia, Virendra S., Bindi, Marco, Biggs, Jody, Broad, Ian, Lee, Byun-Wu, Cammarano, Davide, Carretero, Ramiro, Chung, Uran, de Sanctis, Giacomo, Debats, Stephanie, Dhliwayo, Thanda, Estes, Lyndon, Ewert, Frank, Feng, Liping, Ferrrise, Roberto, Gaiser, Thomas, Garcia, Guillermo, Gastal, Francois, Gbegbelegbe, Sika, Geethalakshmi, Vellingiri, Gérardeaux, Edward, Goldberg, Richard, Grant, Brian, Guevara, Edgardo, Hickman, Jonathan, Hoffmann, Holger, Huang, Huanping, Hussain, Jamshad, Justino, Flavio Barbosa, Karunaratne, Asha S., Klumpp, Katja, Koehler, Ann-Kristin, Kouakou, Patrice K., Kumar, Soora Naresh, Lakshmanan, Arunachalam, Lieffering, Mark, Lin, Xiaomao, Luo, Qunying, Ma, Shaoxiu, Magrin, Graciela, Marin, Fabio, Martin, Raphaël, Masutomi, Yuji, Mclean, Greg, Meira, Santiago, Mohanty, Monoranjan, Moore, Andre, Moriondo, Marco, Narh, Stephen, Negm, Lamyaa, Nemenyi, Miklos, Orlandini, Simone, Orlando, Francesca, Ozturk, Isik, Qi, Zhiming, Rahman, Ubaid Ur, Ramarohetra, Johanna, Raynal, Hélène, Rodriguez, Gabriel, Rolinski, Susanne, Ruget, Francoise, Sharda, Vaishali, Shuo, Lu, Smith, Ward, Snow, Val, Soltani, Afshin, Srinivas, K., Sultan, Benjamin, Swain, Dillip Kumar, Tao, Fulu, Tesfaye, Kindie, Thorburn, Peter, Topaj, Alex, Travasso, Maria I., Trombi, Giacomo, Vanuytrecht, Eline, Viscarra, Federico E., Nasim, Wajid, Wang, Enli, Wang, Hong, Wang, Jing, Wang, Sha, Wang, Yingchun, Wijekoon, Erandika, Xiaoguang, Yang, Young, Ban Ho, Yun, Jin I., Zhao, Yahxia, Zhao, Zhigan, Zubair, Lareef |
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| Přispěvatelé: | UR 0874 Unité de recherche sur l'Ecosystème Prairial, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Unité de recherche sur l'Ecosystème Prairial (UREP)-Ecologie des Forêts, Prairies et milieux Aquatiques (EFPA), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Agroclim (AGROCLIM), Unité de Recherche Pluridisciplinaire Prairies et Plantes Fourragères (P3F), Environnement Méditerranéen et Modélisation des Agro-Hydrosystèmes (EMMAH), Avignon Université (AU)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), ProdInra, Migration |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2015 |
| Předmět: | |
| Zdroj: | International scientific conference Our under common climate future change International scientific conference Our under common climate future change, Jul 2015, Paris, France. 2015 |
| Popis: | National audience; The Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP) has conducted a common set of sensitivity tests on more than 1100 simulation sets representing different farm systems in more than 50 countries, with carbon dioxide, temperature, and precipitation change sensitivities gauged for ~20 crop species and ~20 crop models. Here we present an analysis of C3MP results indicating how mean climate changes are likely to affect variability and extreme events within future time periods. Recognizing that climate change will affect agricultural systems both through mean changes and through shifts in climate variability and associated extreme events, C3MP can elucidate several aspects of these changes. First, mean climate changes can affect yields across an entire time period. Second, extreme events (when they do occur) may be more sensitive to climate changes than a year with normal climate. Third, mean climate changes can alter the likelihood of climate extremes exceeding critical biophysical thresholds, leading to more food security extremes. Finally, shifts in climate variability can result in an increase or reduction of mean yield, as extreme climate events tend to have lower yield than years with normal climate.This presentation will demonstrate each of these effects and illustrate the potential implications for future food production and associated agricultural economies under climate change. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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