Alternative Covid-19 mitigation measures in school classrooms:analysis using an agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission
| Autor: | Woodhouse, M J, Aspinall, Willy P, Sparks, R S J, Brooks Pollock, Ellen, Relton, Caroline L |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2022 |
| Předmět: | |
| Zdroj: | Woodhouse, M J, Aspinall, W P, Sparks, R S J, Brooks Pollock, E & Relton, C L 2022, ' Alternative Covid-19 mitigation measures in school classrooms : analysis using an agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission ', Royal Society Open Science, vol. 9, no. 8, 211985, pp. 1-34 . https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.08.30.21262826, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.211985 Woodhouse, M J, Aspinall, W P, Sparks, R S J, Brooks Pollock, E & Relton, C L 2022, ' Alternative Covid-19 mitigation measures in school classrooms : analysis using an agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission ', Royal Society Open Science, vol. 9, no. 8, 211985, pp. 1-34 . https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.08.30.21262826, https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.08.30.21262826, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.211985 |
| Popis: | The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has impacted children’s education, with schools required to implement infection control measures that have led to periods of absence and classroom closures. We developed an agent-based epidemiological model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a school classroom that allows us to quantify projected infection patterns within primary school classrooms, and related uncertainties. Our approach is based on a contact model constructed using random networks, informed by structured expert judgement. The effectiveness of mitigation strategies in suppressing infection outbreaks and limiting pupil absence are considered. Covid-19 infections in primary schools in England in autumn 2020 were re-examined and the model then used to estimate infection levels in autumn 2021, as the Delta-variant was emerging and it was thought likely that school transmission would play a major role in an incipient new wave of the epidemic. Our results were in good agreement with available data. These findings indicate that testing-based surveillance is more effective than bubble quarantine, both for reducing transmission and avoiding pupil absence, even accounting for insensitivity of self-administered tests. Bubble quarantine entails large numbers of absences, with only modest impact on classroom infections. However, maintaining reduced contact rates within the classroom can have a major benefits for managing Covid-19 in school settings. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
|