How precisely do maize crop models simulate the impact of climate change variables on yields and water use?

Autor: Durand, J. L., Bassu, Simona, Brisson, Nadine, Boote, Kenneth J., Lizano, Jon, Jones, James W., Rosenzweig, Cynthia, Ruane, Alex C., Myriam ADAM, Baron, Christian, Basso, Bruno, Biernath, Christian, Boogaard, Hendrik, Conijn, Sjaak, Corbeels, Marc, Deryng, Delphine, Sanctis, Giacomo, Gayler, Sebastian, Grassini, Patricio, Hatfield, Jerry L., Hoek, Steven B., Izaurralde, Cesar, Jongschaap, Raymond, Kemanian, Armen, Kersebaum, Kurt Christian, Kim, Soo-Hyung, Kumar, Naresh S., Makowski, David, Müller, Christoph, Nendel, Claas, Priesack, Eckart, Pravia, Maria Virginia, Sau, Federico, Shcherbak, Iurii, Tao, Fulu, Teixeira, Edmar, Timlin, Dennis, Waha, Katharina
Přispěvatelé: Unité de Recherche Pluridisciplinaire Prairies et Plantes Fourragères (P3F), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Agronomie, AgroParisTech-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Department of agronomy, University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), Department Produccion vegetal, Fitotecnia, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM), Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville] (UF|ABE), Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences [Gainesville] (UF|IFAS), University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF)-University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Partenaires INRAE, Amélioration génétique et adaptation des plantes méditerranéennes et tropicales (UMR AGAP), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro), Territoires, Environnement, Télédétection et Information Spatiale (UMR TETIS), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-AgroParisTech-Centre national du machinisme agricole, du génie rural, des eaux et forêts (CEMAGREF), Department of geological sciences, Michigan State University [East Lansing], Michigan State University System-Michigan State University System, Department crop systems, forestry and environmental sciences, University of Basilicata, German Research Center for Environmental Health - Helmholtz Center München (GmbH), Centre for Geo-Information, ALTERRA, Plant Research International (PRI), Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Agroécologie et Intensification Durables des cultures annuelles (UPR AIDA), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad), Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), Agroclim (AGROCLIM), Water and earth system science [Tübingen] (WESS), Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen = Eberhard Karls University of Tuebingen, Department of agronomy and horticulture, University of Nebraska [Lincoln], University of Nebraska System-University of Nebraska System, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System, Department of Plant Science, Pennsylvania State University (Penn State), Penn State System-Penn State System, Institute of landscape systems analysis, Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), University of Washington [Seattle], Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture (CESCRA), Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Institute of geographical sciences and natural resources research, Chinese Academy of Sciences [Changchun Branch] (CAS), Sustainable Production, Plant & Food Research, ARS Crop Systems and Global Change Laboratory, United States Department of Agriculture, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-AgroParisTech, ProdInra, Migration
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2015
Předmět:
Zdroj: Building tomorrow’s research agenda and bridging the science-policy gap
Climate-Smart Agriculture 2015 : Global Science Conference
Climate-Smart Agriculture 2015 : Global Science Conference, Mar 2015, Montpellier, France. 296 p
CIRAD
Popis: AgMIP is an international program bringing together research projects on climate, crop modelling and regional agriculture adaptation to climate change. One objective is to better assess the projections of global food availability depending on different staple crops (wheat, rice and maize), taking into account the projections of climate change for the end of century and the uncertainty attached to them. The need for robust estimates, i.e. good crop models for yields and use of natural resources is a prerequisite to benchmark the various cropping systems and local solutions that will ultimately be explored in order to cope with climate change, without bringing about any negative side effects on the environment. Modelers hence work together internationally in order to compare and improve process-based crop simulation models. Maize is a strategic crop, exhibiting high potential radiation and water use efficiencies and is cultivated worldwide. In a first phase, the impacts of CO2 and temperature on the maize yields and water use were studied using 23 crop models on 4 sites with contrasted cool or hot climate conditions, under no water limitation (Lusignan in France, Ames in the United States, Morogoro in Tanzania and Rio Verde in Brasil). Models were run using local soil conditions and climate variables for 30 years (1980-2010) after adjusting the cultivar parameters to the ones used in one experiment in each site. At the four sites studied, the average values across models of simulated yields were closer to the observed local experimental results than the simulation of any individual model. This indicated that ensemble modelling could be a relevant way to approach the impact of climate change on maize yields. There was also a broad agreement between models to simulate a reduction in maize yield in response to temperature, roughly - 0.5 Mg ha-1 per °C increase, with no significant impact on water use, although the latter variable was estimated with a large variability between models. Plant phenology was the mostly altered process with increasing temperature. Shortening of the duration from flowering to maturity in particular reduced the gain in grain weight during that phase. This suggests that genetics could hence play a key role in adapting maize production to climate change, at least under high water availability. Doubling [CO2] from 360 to 720 μmole mole-1 increased grain yield by 7.5% on average across models and sites, with a slight decrease of water use, bringing about an increase in water use efficiency. However, the variability of the response to [CO2] was very high, bringing about the need to better simulate the role of CO2, especially on plant transpiration. In a second phase, models are therefore now being tested against Free Air CO2 Enrichment experimental data, so that variability can be reduced and the actual impact of global change on water use can be assessed with a relevant precision to adaptating agricultural practices. (Texte intégral)
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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