Impacts of climate change on surface ozone and intercontinental ozone pollution:a multi-model study

Autor: Doherty, R. M., Wild, O., Shindell, D. T., Zeng, G., MacKenzie, I. A., Collins, W. J., Fiore, A. M., Stevenson, D. S., Dentener, F. J., Schultz, M. G., Hess, P., Derwent, R. G., Keating, T. J.
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2013
Předmět:
Zdroj: Journal of geophysical research / Atmospheres 118, 3744-3763 (2013). doi:10.1002/jgrd.50266
Doherty, R M, Wild, O, Shindell, D T, Zeng, G, MacKenzie, I A, Collins, W J, Fiore, A M, Stevenson, D S, Dentener, F J, Schultz, M G, Hess, P, Derwent, R G & Keating, T J 2013, ' Impacts of climate change on surface ozone and intercontinental ozone pollution : A multi-model study ', Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, vol. 118, no. 9, pp. 3744–3763 . https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50266, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.502662013
Popis: The impact of climate change between 2000 and 2095 SRES A2 climates on surface ozone (O)3 and on O3 source-receptor (S-R) relationships is quantified using three coupled climate-chemistry models (CCMs). The CCMs exhibit considerable variability in the spatial extent and location of surface O3 increases that occur within parts of high NOx emission source regions (up to 6 ppbv in the annual average and up to 14 ppbv in the season of maximum O3). In these source regions, all three CCMs show a positive relationship between surface O3 change and temperature change. Sensitivity simulations show that a combination of three individual chemical processes-(i) enhanced PAN decomposition, (ii) higher water vapor concentrations, and (iii) enhanced isoprene emission-largely reproduces the global spatial pattern of annual-mean surface O3 response due to climate change (R2 = 0.52). Changes in climate are found to exert a stronger control on the annual-mean surface O3 response through changes in climate-sensitive O3 chemistry than through changes in transport as evaluated from idealized CO-like tracer concentrations. All three CCMs exhibit a similar spatial pattern of annual-mean surface O3 change to 20% regional O3 precursor emission reductions under future climate compared to the same emission reductions applied under present-day climate. The surface O3 response to emission reductions is larger over the source region and smaller downwind in the future than under present-day conditions. All three CCMs show areas within Europe where regional emission reductions larger than 20% are required to compensate climate change impacts on annual-mean surface O3.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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