Tipping points in continental hydrology : developing a system dynamics approach to represent the interfaces in the critical zone and built a decade-scale hydrologic model

Autor: Valentin Wendling, Christophe Peugeot, Manuela Grippa, Geremy Panthou, Jean-Louis Rajot, Olivier Mora, Angeles Garcia-Mayor, Emmanuel Lawin, Ibrahim Bouzou-Moussa, Abdramane Ba
Přispěvatelé: ROUCHÉ, Nathalie, Exploration des points de bascule dans le cycle hydrologique ouest-africain - - TipHyc2020 - ANR-20-CE01-0014 - AAPG2020 - VALID, Hydrosciences Montpellier (HSM), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM), Géosciences Environnement Toulouse (GET), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ), Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA), Institut d'écologie et des sciences de l'environnement de Paris (iEES Paris ), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 (UPEC UP12)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Laboratoire Interuniversitaire des Systèmes Atmosphériques (LISA (UMR_7583)), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 (UPEC UP12)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Direction de l'Expertise scientifique collective, de la Prospective et des Etudes, Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Utrecht University [Utrecht], Université Abdou Moumouni [Niamey], Laboratoire d'Hydrologie Appliquée (LHA), Université d’Abomey-Calavi = University of Abomey Calavi (UAC), Université des Sciences, des Techniques et des Technologies de Bamako (USTTB), Institut National de L’Eau, Cotonou, UNESCO, ICIREWARD, UNIVERSITE MONTPELLIER, CNRS, ANR-20-CE01-0014,TipHyc,Exploration des points de bascule dans le cycle hydrologique ouest-africain(2020)
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2022
Předmět:
Zdroj: HAL
AISH 2022
AISH 2022, UNESCO; ICIREWARD; UNIVERSITE MONTPELLIER; CNRS, May 2022, Montpellier, France
Popis: International audience; We develop a holistic approach of watershed hydrology, focusing on the interfaces between critical zone components and relying on interdisciplinarity. We mainly explore the first Unsolved Problem in Hydrology (UPH): Is the hydrological cycle regionally accelerating/decelerating under climate and environmental change, and are there tipping points? and 5 other UPH (3,4,7,12,19). As feedbacks exist between the critical zone components, forming a complex system, it can lead to the emergence of tipping points and to shifts between hydrological regimes.A hydrological regime shift is indeed observed since 1950 in the Sahel (semi-arid region, Africa). Stream flows continuously increased in this region despite a severe regional drought in the 70s-90s. This suggests that a tipping point could have been surpassed, because of changes in climate and/or human practices. To explore this hypothesis, we develop a new modeling approach, relying on long term observations (1950-present) of hydrology, geomorphology and land used/land cover. We use System Dynamics modeling to capture feedbacks between water, soil structure, vegetation and flow connectivity between hillslope, channel and aquifer.The modeling results accurately represent the observed decade-scale evolution of the hydrological regime at several watershed scale (1-10000 km²). This shows that tipping points exist in semi-arid land hydrology and allows to explore which processes are at play. We identified domains within watersheds where regime shifts occurred at small scale, propagated across scales and led to large-scale shifts. Ultimately, we aim at identifying areas where the risk of an irreversible hydrological regime shift is high under various climatic and socio-economical possible futures.This study illustrates that using system dynamics to represent the critical zone is complementary to classical hydrologic modeling based on hydrodynamics. While the system-based approach represent correctly the decadal trends of the hydrological regime, the hydrodynamics approach did so for floods and drought at minute/year time scales.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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