Present and Future High-Resolution Climate Forcings over Semiarid Catchments: Case of the Tensift (Morocco)

Autor: Moucha, Ahmed, Hanich, Lahoucine, Tramblay, Yves, Saaidi, Amina, Gascoin, Simon, Martin, Eric, Le Page, Michel, Bouras, Elhoussaine, Szczypta, Camille, Jarlan, Lionel
Přispěvatelé: Hydrosciences Montpellier (HSM), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre d'études spatiales de la biosphère (CESBIO), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Montpellier 2 - Sciences et Techniques (UM2)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2021
Předmět:
Zdroj: Atmosphere
Volume 12
Issue 3
Atmosphere, Vol 12, Iss 370, p 370 (2021)
Atmosphere, 2021, 12 (3), pp.370. ⟨10.3390/atmos12030370⟩
Atmosphere, MDPI 2021, 12 (3), pp.370. ⟨10.3390/atmos12030370⟩
ISSN: 2073-4433
DOI: 10.3390/atmos12030370
Popis: In semiarid areas, the climate is characterized by strong spatiotemporal variability while the meteorological ground network is often very sparse. In this context, the spatial distribution of meteorological variables is thus a real issue for watershed hydrology, agronomy and the study of surface–atmosphere retroaction in these regions. The aim of this study is twofold: (1) to evaluate and to adapt a reanalysis system “Système d’Analyse Fournissant des Renseignements Adaptés à la Nivologie” (SAFRAN) to map the meteorological variables on the Tensift catchment (Morocco) between 2004 and 2014
(2) to project temperature and precipitation for the 2041–2060 horizon at high-resolution based on the Euro-CORDEX database at 12 km resolution (using two Representative Concentration Pathway -RCPs- scenarios and four Regional Climate Models), on the SAFRAN reanalysis and on a network of meteorological stations. SAFRAN was assessed: (1) based on leave-one-out for a station located in the plain and another in the mountains
(2) by comparison to another re-analysis system named the Meteorological Distribution System for High-Resolution Terrestrial Modeling (MicroMet)
(3) by comparison to in situ measurements of snowfall at one station and to the daily Snow Cover Area derived from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) product at the catchment scale. The evaluation of the SAFRAN reanalysis showed that an irregular grid up to 1 km resolution is better for reproducing meteorological variables than the regular version of SAFRAN at 8 km, especially in mountains. The projection of the SAFRAN forcing is conducted in three steps corresponding to the three subsections below: (1) disaggregation of the Euro-CORDEX climate scenarios using the Q–Q approach based on stations data
(2) computation of the spatialized delta-change between historical and future Euro-CORDEX runs after Q–Q correction
(3) futurization of SAFRAN using the spatialized delta change values. The mountainous area is expected to face a higher increase in air temperature than the plains, reaching +2.5 °C for RCP8.5 and +1.71 °C for RCP4.5 over 2041–2060. This warming will be accompanied by a marked decrease in precipitation (−16% for RCP8.5). These present and future spatialized data sets should be useful for impact studies, in particular those focusing on water resources.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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