Singular extreme events and their attribution to climate change: a climate service-centered analysis

Autor: Jézéquel, Aglaé, Dépoues, Vivian, Guillemot, Hélène, Rajaud, Amélie, Trolliet, Mélodie, Vrac, Mathieu, Vanderlinden, Jean-Paul, Yiou, Pascal
Přispěvatelé: Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Agence de l'Environnement et de la Maîtrise de l'Energie (ADEME), Centre Alexandre Koyré - Centre de Recherche en Histoire des Sciences et des Techniques (CAK-CRHST), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre Observation, Impacts, Énergie (O.I.E.), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Cultures, Environnements, Arctique, Représentations, Climat (CEARC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2019
Předmět:
Zdroj: Weather, Climate, and Society
Weather, Climate, and Society, American Meteorological Society, 2019, ⟨10.1175/WCAS-D-19-0048.1⟩
ISSN: 1948-8327
1948-8335
DOI: 10.1175/WCAS-D-19-0048.1⟩
Popis: International audience; Extreme event attribution (EEA) proposes scientific diagnostics on whether and how a specific weather event is (or is not) different in the actual world from what it could have been in a world without climate change. This branch of climate science has developed to the point where European institutions are preparing the ground for an operational attribution service. In this context, the goal of this article is to explore a panorama of scientist perspectives on their motivations to undertake EEA studies. In order to do so, we rely on qualitative semi-structured interviews of climate scientists involved in EEA, on peer-reviewed social and climate literature discussing the usefulness of EEA and on reports from the EUCLEIA project, which investigated the possibility of building an EEA service. We propose a classification of EEA’s potential uses and users and discuss each of them. We find that, first, there is a plurality of motivations and that individual scientists disagree on which one is most useful. Second, there is a lack of solid, empirical evidence to back up any of these motivations.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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