Uncertainties in solar electricity yield prediction from fluctuation of solar radiation
| Autor: | Marcel Suri, Thomas Huld, Ewan Dunlop, Michel Albuisson, Mireille Lefèvre, Lucien Wald |
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| Přispěvatelé: | JRC Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] (JRC), Centre Énergétique et Procédés (CEP), MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), CEP/Sophia, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2007 |
| Předmět: | |
| Zdroj: | 22nd European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference 22nd European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference, Sep 2007, Milan, Italy HAL |
| Popis: | We have analyzed the variability of solar radiation in the Mediterranean and Black Sea regions by comparing yearly and monthly averages to long-term average values calculated from the HelioClim-1 database. Daily sums of global horizontal irradiation are considered for 18 years in the period 1985-2004. Standard deviation of yearly sums of global horizontal irradiation shows low interannual variability, being mostly in the range of 4% to 6%. While in arid climate of Northern Africa, Middle East, and Southern Europe standard deviation goes below 4%, values up to 10% are identified along coasts and in mountains. In the least sunny year out of 18, the solar resource was generally never more than 9% below the long-term average, and only in a few regions the radiation deficit reached 15%. The most stable weather is found in summer with standard deviation in June below 12%. The least stable season is winter, with variability higher then 20% in December, and regionally going above 35%. The solar resource has distinctive time and geographical patterns that might affect financing of large photovoltaic systems, as well as management of the distributed electricity generation. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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