Effect of land cover and climate changes on rainfall-induced landslides: regional-scale modelling in the Val d’Aran (Pyrenees, Spain)
| Autor: | Hurlimann Ziegler, Marcel, Medina Iglesias, Vicente César de, Lloret Morancho, Antonio, Vaunat, Jean, Puig i Polo, Càrol, Moya Sánchez, José |
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| Přispěvatelé: | Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Departament d'Enginyeria Civil i Ambiental, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Departament de Màquines i Motors Tèrmics, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. EnGeoModels - Monitoring and Modelling in Engineering Geology, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. CREMIT - Centre de Recerca de Motors i Instal·lacions Tèrmiques, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. MSR - Mecànica del Sòls i de les Roques, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. EGEO - Enginyeria Geomàtica |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: | |
| Zdroj: | UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC) |
| Popis: | The analysis of the impacts of future environmental changes on rainfall-induced landslides is of great importance. Recent studies have shown that these changes will affect the frequency and magnitude of shallow slides and debris flows. In this study, we focused on the effects of climate changes as well as land use and land cover (LULC) changes on rainfall-induced slope failures at regional scale. A newly developed physically-based susceptibility model was applied and the Val d’Aran area, located in the Central Pyrenees (Spain), was selected as study site. First, the catastrophic landslide episode, which affected the Val d’Aran area in June 2013, was used for a preliminary validation of the susceptibility model. Then, the future LULC changes until the end of the 21th century were simulated in the study area and incorporated in the regional landslide model. The results revealed an overall increase of stability in the future, because of the larger area of forest and the consequent higher cohesion due to augmented root strength. In the next step, the impacts of future climate changes were calculated including a higher rainfall intensity. We assumed an increase of 15%, which corresponds to the last findings obtained from the ensemble of regional climate models using RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. This increase in rainfall intensity produced a reduction of the overall slope stability in the study area. However, comparing the effects produced by LULC and rainfall changes revealed that the LULC changes have a greater influence than the changes related to the rainfall conditions. This means that the overall stability in the study area slightly improves in the future. Multiples assumptions and simplifications were introduced in these preliminary calculations of the future landslide susceptibility, and additional simulations are necessary to confirm the observed trends. Nevertheless, the results seem to be coherent with the outcomes of other recent studies and give some valuable information for both stakeholders and researchers, which deal with the same thematic. The study was funded by the national research project called “Slope mass-wasting under climate change” (smucphy.upc.edu) granted by the Spain Government (project reference number BIA 2015-67500-R) and co-funded by AEI/FEDER, UE. Objectius de Desenvolupament Sostenible::13 - Acció per al Clima |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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