Nomogram predicting the probability of spontaneous stone passage in patients presenting with acute ureteric colic

Autor: Gao, C, Peters, M, Kurver, P, Anbarasan, T, Jayaraajan, K, Manning, T, Cashman, S, Nambiar, A, Cumberbatch, M, Lamb, BW, Pickard, R, Erotocritou, P, Smith, D, Kasivisvanathan, V, Shah, TT, Abboudi, H, Abdelmoteleb, H, Abu Yousif, M, Acher, P, Adams, R, Ager, M, Ahmed, I, Ajayi, L, Akintimehin, A, Akman, J, Al Hayek, S, Al‐Dhahir, W, Al‐Qassim, Z, Al‐Shakhshir, S, Alberto, M, Ali Abdaal, C, Arya, M, Assaf, N, Ayres, B, Badgery, H, Bateman, K, Bdesha, A, Bedi, N, Begum, R, Belal, M, Biyani, CS, Bolton, D, Bultitude, M, Burge, F, Bycroft, J, Cameron, F, Campbell, A, Cannon, A, Carrie, A, Chappell, B, Chin, AOL, Chow, K, Christidis, D, Clements, J, Coode‐Bate, J, Cronbach, P, Curry, D, Dasgupta, R, Demirel, S, Derbyshire, L, Din, W, Docherty, E, Edison, E, Eldred‐Evans, D, Ellis, G, Evans, S, Foley, R, Frymann, R, Gallagher, M, Gowardhan, B, Graham, J, Graham, S, Gray, S, Grice, P, Gupta, S, Hamad, S, Hann, G, Harris, A, Hatem, E, Hawary, A, Hayat, Z, Hayne, D, Hegazy, M, Henderson, J, Hendry, J, Ho, C, Hughes‐Hallet, A, Hussain, A, Hussain, Z, Ibrahim, H, Irving, S, Ivin, N, Jaffer, A, Jalil, R, Kashora, F, Kavia, R, Kerr, L, Khadouri, S, Khan, A, Khan, M, Khan, S, Koschel, S, Kozan, AA, Kum, F, Kynaston, H, Laird, A, Lavan, L, Lawrentschuk, N, Lee, JCM, Lee, S, Liew, M, Mackenzie, K, Malki, M, Manson‐Bahr, D, Mason, H, Matanhelia, M, Maw, J, Mbuvi, J, Mc Cauley, N, Mc Grath, S, Mc Kay, AC, Mcilhenny, C, Miakhil, I, Miller, M, Mirza, AB, Morrison‐Jones, V, Morrow, J, Mosey, R, Murtagh, K, Natarajan, M, Nehikhare, Y, Ness, D, Ng, A, Ngweso, S, Nkwam, N, Nyandoro, M, Nzenza, T, O’ Brien, J, O’ Rourke, J, Olaniyi, P, Olivier, J, Osman, B, Oyekan, A, Pang, K, Pankhania, R, Parwaiz, I, Parys, B, Patterson, J, Pearce, I, Phipps, S, Premakumar, Y, Probert, JL, Quinlan, D, Ratan, H, Reid, K, Rezacova, M, Rezvani, S, Rodger, F, Rogers, A, Ross, D, Rowbotham, C, Rujancich, P, Ruljancich, P, Sadien, I, Sakthivel, A, Saleemi, A, Samsudin, A, Sandhu, S, Seaward, L, Sharma, A, Sharma, S, Shergill, I, Shetty, A, Shingles, C, Simmons, L, Simpson, R, Simson, N, Singh, H, Sriprasad, S, Stammeijer, R, Steen, C, Stewart, H, Stonier, T, Suraparaj, L, Swallow, D, Symes, A, Symes, R, Tailor, K, Tait, C, Tam, JP, Tay, J, Tay, LJ, Tregunna, R, Tudor, E, Udovichich, C, Umez‐Eronini, N, Wang, L, Ward, A, Weeratunga, G, Withington, J, Wong, C, Wozniak, S, Yassaie, O, Young, M
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2022
ISSN: 1464-4096
Popis: Objectives\ud \ud To develop a nomogram that could predict spontaneous stone passage (SSP) in patients presenting with acute ureteric colic who are suitable for conservative management.\ud \ud \ud \ud Patients and Methods\ud \ud A 2517 patient dataset was utilised from an international multicentre cohort study (MIMIC, A Multi-centre Cohort Study Evaluating the role of Inflammatory Markers In Patients Presenting with Acute Ureteric Colic) of patients presenting with acute ureteric colic across 71 secondary care hospitals in the UK, Ireland, Australia, and New Zealand. Inclusion criteria mandated a non-contrast computed tomography of the kidneys, ureters, and bladder. SSP was defined as the ‘absence of the need for intervention’. The model was developed using logistic regression and backwards selection (to achieve lowest Akaike's information criterion) in a subset from 2009–2015 (n = 1728) and temporally validated on a subset from 2016–2017 (n = 789).\ud \ud \ud \ud Results\ud \ud Of the 2517 patients, 1874 had SSP (74.5%). The mean (SD) age was 47 (14.7) years and 1892 were male (75.2%). At the end of the modelling process, gender: male (odds ratio [OR] 0.8, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.64–1.01, P = 0.07), neutrophil count (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.00–1.06, P = 0.08), hydronephrosis (OR 0.79, 95% CI 0.59–1.05, P = 0.1), hydroureter (OR 1.3, 95% CI 0.97–1.75, P = 0.08), stone size >5–7 mm (OR 0.2, 95% CI 0.16–0.25, P 7 mm (OR 0.11, 95% CI 0.08–0.15, P
Databáze: OpenAIRE