| Popis: |
Covered interest rate parity (CIP) is one of the fundamentals of international capital markets effectiveness, assuming perfect capital mobility. This paper investigates validation of CIP on a sample of non-EMU members, using dynamic OLS approach. The sample consists of EU member countries that are still outside the monetary union, namely Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Romania, Croatia, Sweden and United Kingdom, within a time span covering 2002-2015. Monetary integration requires abandoning of capital controls, allowing free capital flows that make CIP an important indicator of the union’s efficiency. The analysis taken has found evidence on (weak) CIP only in the case of Hungary, while for other countries there is no statistical support (using dynamic OLS) for the CIP, although the estimated parameters were close to 0 and 1. However, one should be careful in interpreting these results in context of EMU entrance as CIP is only one of the required conditions. So, although according to CIP rejection these countries should not enter EMU soon, other aspects of monetary integration should be evaluated to get stronger conclusions. |
