A compound real options framework for optimal project portfolio allocation under uncertainty: The case of marginal field development under reservoir and price uncertainty

Autor: Fedorov, S., Hagspiel, V., Haseldonckx, S., Hyldmo, T., Skudal, M.H.
Zdroj: Geoenergy Science and Engineering; 20240101, Issue: Preprints
Abstrakt: The decreasing average size of oil and gas (O&G) discoveries on the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS) has increased interest in mitigating the uncertainties involved in O&G investment decisions. Marginal fields, in particular, will not be able to support the same data gathering as larger fields, as the cost of appraisal wells may outweigh the potential revenues of the field. This lack of information increases subsurface uncertainty, making the investment decision more complex. Therefore, modeling this uncertainty and accounting for managerial flexibility is essential when evaluating O&G investments. Using existing infrastructure through tiebacks is one of the most cost-efficient solutions for developing smaller O&G discoveries. With spare capacities opening up on maturing production facilities, tiebacks from marginal fields to these facilities can be an appropriate investment option.
Databáze: Supplemental Index