| Abstrakt: |
This article proposes a model that estimates the growth of the individual transport vehicle fleet and the impact of electric vehicles on CO2emissions by the year 2050. For this purpose, a case study was carried out in the federal capital of Brazil, Brasília, to characterise real driving cycles, with measurements of speeds, fuel consumption and CO2emissions, and thus validate the proposed model. Therefore, the model was applied in scenario simulations, obtaining an 84% reduction in CO2emissions with the total change in the fleet from combustion vehicles to electric vehicles by the year 2050. In another perspective, by changing the composition of the current vehicle fleet to 50% ethanol-powered hybrid vehicles and 50% electric vehicles will reduce CO2emissions by 92%. The simulated scenarios indicated the potential for decarbonising CO2emissions by replacing the fleet of vehicles with ignition engines for hybrid and electric ones. |
