| Autor: |
Murray, Titus A., Power, William L., Johnson, Anthony J., Christie, Greg J., Richards, David R. |
| Zdroj: |
Geological Society, London, Special Publications; 2020, Vol. 496 Issue: 1 p145-161, 17p |
| Abstrakt: |
We propose and validate methods for risk analysis of fault-bounded hydrocarbon traps in exploration. We concentrate on cross-fault leakage and consider lateral seals due to (1) juxtaposition and (2) high capillary-entry-pressure fault rock (membrane seal). We conclude that stochastic methods for fault seal analysis are essential, due to the large number of structural and stratigraphic parameters and the uncertainties. Central to the methods proposed is a Monte Carlo simulation which models geometrical and stratigraphic uncertainty. Multiple Allan maps (fault-parallel cross-sections) are produced and analysed for juxtaposition and shale gouge ratio (SGR). For validation, known discoveries with independently observed hydrocarbon–water contacts (IHWC) have been back-analysed. We present two case studies in this paper, and an additional 40 case studies are summarized (four public domain and 36 confidential case studies). The model outputs were compared with the IHWC. Juxtaposition analysis with no SGR contribution gives the smallest error. The inclusion of any fault rock seal mechanisms (such as SGR) matches or increases predicted hydrocarbon column heights compared to juxtaposition and gives larger errors. We conclude there is no reason to include fault rock membrane seals in exploration prospect risking. |
| Databáze: |
Supplemental Index |
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