| Abstrakt: |
This study investigates on variabilities in annual precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature within the Weyb River basin during 2006–2100 under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6/4.5/8.5 scenarios based on predictions of three Earth System Models (GFDL-ESM2M, CanESM2, and GFDL-ESM2G). Our results showed that precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature would rise in the near term (2011–2040), the medium term (2041–2070), and the long term (2071–2100) as compared to the baseline scenario (1981–2005). The larger increments are predicted by GFDL-ESM2M than those by GFDL-ESM2G and CanESM2 in all three time periods. The variabilities of precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature are predicted to be higher under RCP8.5 scenario than those under RCP4.5 or RCP2.6 scenario in simulations of all three ESMs. Results also revealed that there would be significant spatiotemporal variations in precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature within the Weyb River basin, which implies that the basin would possibly experience droughts or floods more frequently during the 21st century. |
