| Abstrakt: |
There is sufficient evidence linking the cases of new variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (nv-CJD) with the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) epidemic that caution must demand a presumption of a causal link. Predictive calculations of nv-CJD incidence have been attempted using various methods and each of them makes specific presumptions to justify their findings. Few of the presumptions are currently adequately certain but, nonetheless, they would seem reasonable and useful. Predictions made by these methods range from low incidence levels (<1000) to very high levels (>1000 000); it appears, however, that the higher the figures that are calculated the further into the future a large annual incidence is expected to take place and then over a longer period of time. If relatively large numbers of individuals were currently incubating the disease it would seem reasonable that research into both methods of diagnosis and treatment for the disease could take place in sufficient time to alter the pathology, epidemiology and cost of the disease. |
