Impact of climate change on the temporal and regional occurrence of Cercospora leaf spot in Lower Saxony

Autor: Saxony, Lower, Richerzhagen, Dominique, Racca, Paolo, Zeuner, Thorsten, Kuhn, Christian, Falke, Kristina, Kleinhenz, Benno, Hau, Bernhard
Zdroj: Journal of Plant Diseases and Protection; October 2011, Vol. 118 Issue: 5 p168-177, 10p
Abstrakt: The effect of climate change on the temporal and regional occurrence of Cercospora leaf spot (CLS) of sugar beet in Lower Saxony is analysed using the forecasting model CERCBET1. Based on the hourly weather parameters temperature and relative humidity, this model predicts three events: the time when 1%, 50% and 100% of the fields in a region are infested (T1, T50and T100). Input data are the results of the regional climate model REMO. The effects of climate change are studied in three time windows: a baseline period B (1971–2000), a medium-term period M (2021–2050) and a long-term period L (2071–2100). A comparison of the time windows B and M shows that T1has an earlier occurrence by 5.2 days, T50by 6.7 days and T100by 10.6 days. In period L, T1is reached 22.9 days earlier than in period B; the occurrence of T50and T100is 25.2 and 32.7 days earlier. For a regional risk analysis, Lower Saxony is subdivided into four interpolation areas. In all three time windows, in every season the epidemic starts in the west and ends in the north, while the east and the south are consistently in the middle of the timeline. One consequence of the earlier occurrence could be an increase of the frequency of fungicide application but from today’s perspective the consequences are hardly predictable due to the lack of knowledge about multiple interactions between host and pathogen and the social-economic developments in the future.
Databáze: Supplemental Index
Externí odkaz: