| Abstrakt: |
Predominantly, existing dynamic traffic assignment studies presume that travel time is deterministic, merely subjected to congestion due to capacity limitations. In view of the inevitability of travel-time uncertainty, a lot of effort has been spent to investigate how uncertainty affects travel choices. Extending from the bottleneck scheduling model, this article establishes the connection between trip scheduling and punctuality reliability by considering that travellers value earliness and lateness differently according to their different degrees of punctuality reliability. Punctuality reliability refers to the probability of being not late for a scheduled activity, which is heterogeneous among travellers and depends on their degrees of risk aversion. By incorporating the notion of punctuality reliability, we can produce the sensible result that risk-averse travellers (those with higher punctuality reliability) choose to depart from home at earlier times, while such a mapping or feature is absent in the original model by Small [1982. The scheduling of consumer activities: work trips. American Economic Review, 72, 467–479]. The proposition is confirmed by our empirical study. The modelling framework is then demonstrated numerically first to the scheduling problem in a single bottleneck then to parallel bottlenecks that offer route choices. |
